Recovery rate by portfolio age: why 0–30 days is not the same product as 360+
Ageing buckets change contact strategy, discount policy and legal spend. Here is how Mexican operators should read recovery curves before they staff a floor.
Direct answer: Recovery is a function of days past due × data quality × product. Treating a 14-day retail card like a 400-day commercial invoice with the same script and the same discount grid is how programmes overspend and under-collect.
Read the curve, then staff it
Illustrative operator curves (managed books, not purchased distress) often look like this:
- 0–30 days: high share of balance recovered with reminders and easy payment paths.
- 31–90 days: still the economic core of most consumer programmes if you keep omnichannel contact.
- 91–180 days: recovery depends on authorised concessions and a real negotiator, not a dialer.
- 181–360 days: expect a steep drop; invest only where propensity models say yes.
- 360+ days: legal or structured settlement — never “more of the same calls.”
Use the curve to set cost per peso recovered, not vanity contact counts.
What changes in the operating design
- Script and offer: early stage sells convenience; late stage sells certainty (settlement, notary, payment plan).
- Channel mix: SMS and app nudges dominate preventive; voice and WhatsApp dominate early; field and legal dominate late.
- Governance: discount authority must sit with a named role. Uncapped agent discounts will eat the book.
How CFOs should use this in a vendor review
Ask for recovery by original ageing at placement, not blended. A shop that only shows a headline 78% contact rate is hiding the mix. Demand a table: placed balance, cash in 30/60/90, complaints, and cost-to-collect by bucket.
If you want a projection on your mix, send an anonymised extract. The collections unit is built around this staging.
Questions operators actually ask
Why does recovery fall so fast after 90 days?
Contact data decays, competing creditors appear, and the debtor’s cash is already allocated. Intensity of contact cannot fully offset stale phones and unpaid utilities.
Should every bucket have the same SLA?
No. First-contact SLAs should be hours in early stage and days in late extrajudicial. Legal files need a scoring gate, not a speed contest.
Is a 86% 0–30 recovery claim realistic?
It can be for fresh, well-originated books with good phones. It is not a benchmark you copy onto purchased NPLs.
Send an anonymised extract.
We return a recovery projection within five business days. No cost, no obligation to sign.
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